Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3C 0x3cc5…5fcb sports 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 680d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$7,583 (+20%) realized +$7,581 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%35W / 46L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$111
14 days+$231
30 days+$231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$8,839
other 3% −$487
economics 2% −$809
politics 0% −$110
world 0% −$96
crypto 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +56.0% +41.2% 100% 100% +41.2%
≤30d 2 +68.5% +52.5% 100% 100% +50.9%
≤90d 3 +12.4% +1.7% 67% 67% +32.5%
all 81 +16.0% +5.0% 43% 43% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 43% +8.6%
10% -5.1% 43% -1.8%
15% -14.2% 41% -11.3%
20% -22.6% 36% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +48% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$705 vs −$378 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

680d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$7,581
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses35 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage680d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $304 $306 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $198 +$111 +56%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $149 +$120 +81%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 27 $50 −$48 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $1,493 +$681 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $1,715 +$1,175 +68%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $732 −$732 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 20 $680 +$63 +9%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 19 $2,287 +$1,594 +70%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 18 $560 −$560 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $999 −$999 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $1,439 −$1,439 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $67 −$67 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $790 +$1,140 +144%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 11 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 11 $600 +$2,444 +407%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 10 $342 −$342 -100%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $150 +$234 +156%
Will the Eagles win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jan 06 $400 −$400 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $1,499 +$3,064 +204%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 05 $500 +$851 +170%
Commanders vs. Eagles Jan 04 $2,142 −$2,142 -100%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $972 −$379 -39%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 03 $407 −$407 -100%
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State Jan 03 $189 −$189 -100%
Rams vs. Falcons Dec 30 $135 +$405 +300%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 29 $683 +$419 +61%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 29 $1,500 +$1,924 +128%
Steelers vs. Browns Dec 28 $400 −$400 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 28 $600 −$600 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Dec 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Broncos vs. Chiefs Dec 26 $500 +$185 +37%
Lions vs. Vikings Dec 26 $600 −$600 -100%
Cowboys vs. Commanders Dec 25 $100 −$100 -100%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 23 $360 −$360 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 22 $600 +$1,307 +218%
Steelers vs. Lions Dec 22 $214 +$718 +335%
Chargers vs. Cowboys Dec 22 $200 +$99 +49%
Bills vs. Browns Dec 22 $300 +$105 +35%
Packers vs. Bears Dec 21 $482 +$497 +103%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 21 $1,500 +$708 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $305 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $309 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $198 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $74 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $74 12d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? BUY Yes $3 56d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 56d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 56d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes $200 123d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $15 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down $5 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down $5 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down $5 134d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $497 134d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 69¢ $996 136d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes $20 146d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 43¢ $568 148d
Rams vs. Seahawks SELL Seahawks 55¢ $568 148d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 56¢ $691 148d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 25¢ $200 148d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 22¢ $0 148d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 22¢ $28 148d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 22¢ $14 148d
Rams vs. Seahawks BUY Seahawks 57¢ $456 149d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 35¢ $490 149d
Miami vs. Indiana SELL Miami 18¢ $318 154d
Miami vs. Indiana BUY Miami $180 154d
Miami vs. Indiana SELL Miami 26¢ $397 154d
Miami vs. Indiana SELL Miami 25¢ $28 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.78 · official $305.78 (match) · 201 history records