Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cc5…59ab crypto 875 markets active 10h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$93 (-6%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%441W / 434L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$32
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$119
other 26% −$69
sports 14% +$8
weather 2% −$21
politics 1% +$2
world 0% +$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -32.4% -38.8% 48% 48% -60.2%
≤30d 33 -37.2% -43.2% 39% 39% -56.4%
≤90d 406 -8.1% -16.9% 57% 55% -19.3%
all 875 -15.0% -23.1% 50% 46% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 46% -22.1%
10% -30.4% 38% -29.6%
15% -37.1% 30% -36.4%
20% -43.3% 20% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses441 / 434
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)875 / 875
History coverage112d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 875 Trades
no open positions (358 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +78%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jessica Pegula vs Iga Swiatek May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 13 $1 +$1 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on May 12? May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 $0 +22%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 +$1 +51%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on May 9? May 09 $2 −$2 -87%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on May 9? May 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $2 +$1 +86%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $1 +$1 +48%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes $1 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 64¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 83¢ $1 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 55¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 68¢ $1 6d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Ben Shelton 70¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 6d
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 72¢ $1 7d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 68¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 10? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 10? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 8d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 9? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 7? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1565 history records