Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3cc7…3976 crypto 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+0%) realized +$121 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate95%239W / 12L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$141
other 5% +$36
tech 2% −$16
world 1% +$3
politics 1% −$8
economics 0% −$6
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -5.1%
≤90d 23 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 251 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 6% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 6% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$1,448
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses239 / 12
Open positions27
Markets (closed)251 / 278
History coverage231d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $365 $363 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $341 $340 −$1 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? No 99¢ 99¢ $199 $199 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $149 $148 −$1 (-1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) No 99¢ 98¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 70¢ 59¢ $28 $24 −$4 (-16%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 65¢ 61¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Petr Yan next? No 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 53¢ 50¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-5%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $5M before 2027? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-66%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 11 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by May 31? Jun 11 $81 +$2 +3%
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $140 in May? Jun 11 $181 +$19 +10%
Will either Tate brother be arrested by March 31? May 20 $5 $0 +3%
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in April? May 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April? May 01 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? Apr 21 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16? Apr 21 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? Apr 21 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? Apr 21 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 13? Apr 16 $69 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 13? Apr 16 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 13? Apr 16 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 13? Apr 16 $249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 8? Apr 13 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? Apr 13 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 8? Apr 13 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? Apr 13 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1? Apr 04 $938 +$3 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.16 in March? Apr 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Ethena reach $0.32 in March? Apr 01 $810 +$3 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 28 $3 +$7 +212%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 28 $9 +$6 +59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 20? Mar 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on March 20? Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 20? Mar 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 20? Mar 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Amelia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 Mar 17 $39 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 13? Mar 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? Mar 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 13? Mar 15 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 12? Mar 13 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 12? Mar 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 12? Mar 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 12? Mar 13 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 12? Mar 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 12? Mar 13 $199 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 10? Mar 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 10? Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 10? Mar 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 10? Mar 12 $250 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,400 by end of June? (copy) BUY No 99¢ $69 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $341 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 99¢ $149 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $199 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $365 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 99¢ $27 34d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 99¢ $142 34d
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 30 by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $81 37d
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $140 in May? BUY No 90¢ $181 37d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $48 37d
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 99¢ $30 37d
Will Chainlink dip to $6 in April? BUY No 99¢ $49 62d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in April? BUY No 98¢ $83 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $162 70d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $38 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $299 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 16? BUY No 94¢ $47 70d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $236 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $250 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 13? BUY No 98¢ $69 73d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $13 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $199 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,448.45 · official $1,448.46 (match) · 880 history records