Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3cc9…7e10 crypto 496 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$320 (+1%) realized +$345 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%382W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$606now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$422
14 days−$783
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$344
tech 1% −$126
other 0% −$88
finance 0% −$18
sports 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -16.5% -24.4% 76% 36% -19.0%
≤30d 116 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 41% -9.6%
≤90d 298 +0.9% -8.7% 90% 41% -9.1%
all 489 -2.9% -12.1% 78% 40% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 40% -9.3%
10% -20.6% 17% -18.0%
15% -28.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$46 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$606
Realized+$345
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses382 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)489 / 496
History coverage123d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 489 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? No 79¢ 90¢ $139 $158 +$18 (+13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 90¢ 98¢ $138 $151 +$13 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $114 $111 −$3 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 86¢ 56¢ $139 $92 −$48 (-34%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $55 $52 −$3 (-6%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? No 82¢ 91¢ $25 $27 +$3 (+11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $131 +$17 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $129 +$6 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $131 +$21 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $131 +$15 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $141 +$5 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $143 +$25 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $198 +$30 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $52 −$51 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $193 +$40 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $191 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 14 $191 −$190 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $192 −$191 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $217 +$11 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $226 −$224 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $204 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $213 +$8 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $216 +$30 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $215 +$17 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$35 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 11? Jun 11 $202 +$16 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $202 +$26 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $223 +$14 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $225 +$23 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $225 +$28 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $223 −$223 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $211 +$35 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $210 +$20 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $208 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 9? Jun 09 $210 +$27 +13%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $193 +$52 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $193 +$18 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $60 +$5 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $193 +$25 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $111 +$11 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $191 +$7 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $169 +$9 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $172 +$40 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $177 +$20 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $163 +$47 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $165 +$10 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $261 +$25 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 93¢ $115 15m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 82¢ $25 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 79¢ $141 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 86¢ $141 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $139 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $36 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $131 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $131 11h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $129 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $7 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 88¢ $69 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $52 31h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $9 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $143 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $141 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $198 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $193 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $191 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $191 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $192 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $226 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $217 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $202 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $215 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.46 · official $606.59 (match) · 1223 history records