Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cc9…21ad sports 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$297 (-1%) realized −$295 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%65W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$614now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$475
14 days+$760
30 days+$1,005
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$21
other 27% −$339
world 4% −$16
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +227.1% +196.0% 100% 100% +122.9%
≤30d 14 +46.7% +32.8% 64% 57% +34.5%
≤90d 54 +2.4% -7.4% 61% 39% -7.2%
all 103 -3.4% -12.6% 63% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 47% -11.1%
10% -20.9% 29% -19.6%
15% -28.6% 14% -27.3%
20% -35.6% 9% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$133 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$614
Realized−$295
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses65 / 38
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions5
Markets (closed)103 / 108
History coverage172d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $420 $418 −$2 (-1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $48 $49 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Yes $2 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $223 +$27 +12%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 +$449 +442%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 10 $92 −$90 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $367 +$83 +23%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $97 +$153 +158%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $283 −$83 -29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $121 +$229 +188%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $19 +$1 +4%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $92 −$90 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $122 +$178 +146%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 25 $164 +$136 +83%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $314 +$86 +27%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $67 −$65 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $107 −$104 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $76 +$4 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $275 +$75 +27%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $265 +$35 +13%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $39 +$11 +27%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $114 −$112 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $299 −$298 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 04 $49 −$48 -97%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $384 +$66 +17%
76ers vs. Celtics May 01 $73 −$72 -99%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 01 $59 +$1 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 28 $122 −$119 -98%
Madrid Open: Terence Atmane vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $85 +$16 +18%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 27 $85 +$16 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Michelle Montague (Women's Bant Apr 27 $242 +$59 +24%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $395 −$392 -99%
Will Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Apr 23 $92 +$9 +10%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $185 +$16 +8%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $90 +$11 +12%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $322 −$320 -99%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $131 −$128 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $129 −$126 -98%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 12 $46 −$45 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 12 $86 +$614 +711%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $498 +$2 +0%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 08 $81 +$18 +23%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 08 $439 +$11 +2%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 05 $135 +$15 +11%
Ducks vs. Sharks Apr 05 $175 +$175 +100%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Apr 01 $368 +$32 +9%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 29 $112 −$112 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers Mar 29 $460 +$40 +9%
Bulls vs. Thunder Mar 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $422 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $223 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $98 8d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $101 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $92 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 38¢ $97 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 81¢ $367 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 70¢ $283 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $121 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $8 13d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY HANJIN BRION $92 19d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 22d
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $164 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 24d
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $122 24d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $67 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $19 29d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 78¢ $314 29d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY NRG 13¢ $107 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? BUY No 98¢ $98 34d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 78¢ $275 40d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $39 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 88¢ $265 43d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 28¢ $114 43d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $18 43d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 95¢ $76 45d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 85¢ $299 46d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 12¢ $49 46d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 72¢ $73 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $614.50 · official $614.45 (match) · 183 history records