Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3cc9…219e crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$99 (+28%) realized +$89 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$25
other 14% +$5
weather 7% +$59
sports 5% +$6
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.1% +7.7% 67% 56% -3.9%
≤30d 44 +27.3% +15.2% 57% 48% +12.2%
≤90d 44 +27.3% +15.2% 57% 48% +12.2%
all 44 +27.3% +15.2% 57% 48% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 48% +12.2%
10% +4.2% 41% +1.5%
15% -5.9% 32% -8.3%
20% -15.1% 20% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage11d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 42¢ 95¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+128%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$8 +276%
Will Exeter Chiefs win? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Northampton Saints win? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$9 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $30 −$2 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$3 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$79 +1505%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$7 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 08 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 9¢ $3 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Boxing: Tommy Fury vs. Eddie Hall BUY Hall 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $0 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 8d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 8d
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 1¢ $3 9d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? SELL Yes 79¢ $49 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.10 · official $23.10 (match) · 104 history records