Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:44:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3C 0x3cca…7260 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,335 (+36%) realized +$3,335 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$580
7 days+$658
14 days+$1,377
30 days+$2,469
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$2,186
other 34% +$1,019
sports 21% +$801
crypto 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +19.0% +7.6% 43% 43% +5.1%
≤30d 18 +33.2% +20.5% 56% 50% +22.5%
≤90d 21 +30.8% +18.3% 52% 48% +20.4%
all 36 +17.3% +6.1% 47% 42% +29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 42% +29.1%
10% -4.1% 39% +16.8%
15% -13.3% 36% +5.5%
20% -21.8% 31% -4.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$135 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage148d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $306 +$527 +172%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 +$97 +48%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $385 −$16 -4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $405 −$28 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $406 +$378 +93%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 +$584 +191%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $405 −$400 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $544 −$544 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $204 +$564 +276%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $405 +$308 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$410 +41%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $500 +$1,066 +213%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $1,000 +$27 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 3? Apr 07 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$25 +248%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 17 $35 +$5 +14%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Mar 17 $199 −$199 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Mar 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $100 +$104 +104%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 13 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $22 +$6 +25%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 03 $70 −$56 -79%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 03 $100 −$51 -51%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 02 $200 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 01 $100 −$65 -65%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31? Mar 01 $100 −$48 -48%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $200 +$199 +99%
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $100 −$33 -33%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $494 +$1,977 +400%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $832 39m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $306 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $302 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Sweden 58¢ $369 4h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 59¢ $385 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 58¢ $377 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $405 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $784 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $406 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $400 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $594 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $296 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $306 5d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $544 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $203 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $768 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $714 7d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $405 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,419 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 9d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? SELL No 95¢ $1,566 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL No 1¢ $24 25d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 30¢ $500 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records