Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:22:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3C 0x3cd0…08f6 sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$483 (+1%) realized +$765 · open −$282
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%72W / 62L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$589per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1,046est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$906
7 days+$1,022
14 days−$532
30 days−$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$113
other 3% −$779
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.3% -6.5% 56% 56% +0.6%
≤30d 128 +5.7% -4.3% 55% 55% -10.0%
≤90d 134 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 53% -10.0%
all 134 +2.8% -7.0% 54% 53% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 53% -10.0%
10% -15.9% 49% -18.6%
15% -24.1% 43% -26.5%
20% -31.5% 35% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$708) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$362 vs −$427 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$765
Unrealized−$282
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses72 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$1,046
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage32d
Avg bet$589
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Team Bald 21¢ 0¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner GLYPH 53¢ 0¢ $196 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $149 +$138 +93%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $49 −$48 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $84 −$82 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $148 +$134 +91%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $73 +$71 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $189 −$117 -62%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $315 −$14 -4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $326 −$320 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,431 −$698 -49%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $626 +$399 +64%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $566 +$60 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $396 +$169 +43%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $150 −$147 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $180 +$367 +205%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $913 +$416 +46%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $624 +$291 +47%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $364 +$282 +78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $329 +$35 +11%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $184 +$68 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $336 −$77 -23%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $171 −$169 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $338 −$334 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $281 +$56 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $163 +$119 +73%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $69 −$37 -54%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $702 +$481 +68%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $308 +$395 +128%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $197 −$194 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$118 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $318 −$314 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $183 −$182 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $180 −$79 -44%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $92 −$91 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $172 −$80 -46%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $98 +$73 +74%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $48 −$48 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $300 +$1,079 +360%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$208 +223%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $210 −$206 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $149 +$61 +41%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $103 +$46 +45%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 07 $178 −$175 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $484 −$480 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $2,770 −$2,735 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,282 +$1,490 +116%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $5,058 −$5,000 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $3,026 +$1,195 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $2,668 +$1,452 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 53¢ $198 52m
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 21¢ $89 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 98¢ $287 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $149 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 10¢ $49 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner BUY VP.Prodigy 13¢ $84 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $282 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $148 8h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $73 13h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 24¢ $73 13h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $189 13h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Gaston Bolaños 100¢ $189 13h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Gaston Bolaños 58¢ $112 13h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre SELL Michael Aswell 44¢ $112 13h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 78¢ $203 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $326 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 59¢ $326 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 72¢ $407 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 28¢ $406 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,024 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $1,024 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $626 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $627 19h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 90¢ $566 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 79¢ $566 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $396 23h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 23¢ $150 24h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $547 24h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 32¢ $180 25h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL REKONIX 100¢ $1,329 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.39 · official $0.39 (match) · 261 history records