Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd0…6304 crypto 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-7%) realized −$42 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%28W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$69
other 17% −$63
sports 4% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-40.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -34.5% -40.8% 28% 25% -29.3%
≤30d 100 -34.5% -40.8% 28% 25% -29.3%
≤90d 100 -34.5% -40.8% 28% 25% -29.3%
all 100 -34.5% -40.8% 28% 25% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.8% 25% -29.3%
10% ← realistic here -46.4% 24% -36.1%
15% -51.6% 18% -42.3%
20% -56.4% 14% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses28 / 72
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+68%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 34¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+46%)
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +307%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $18 +$8 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +86%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$8 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$8 -33%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 30h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 30h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.59 · official $10.87 · 245 history records