Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cd3…923e crypto 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$581 (+8%) realized +$581 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%45W / 27L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$511
14 days+$511
30 days+$511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$617
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +9.0% -1.4% 59% 59% +0.1%
≤30d 49 +9.0% -1.4% 59% 59% +0.1%
≤90d 72 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 51% -1.5%
all 72 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 51% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 51% -1.5%
10% -17.6% 39% -11.0%
15% -25.6% 31% -19.6%
20% -32.9% 26% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$65 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$581
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses45 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage60d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$145 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $414 +$505 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $513 +$315 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $310 +$260 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $303 +$54 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 18 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$130 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$43 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $303 +$49 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $104 +$107 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 21 $50 +$44 +88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $102 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records