Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd3…c8eb crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$143 (+8%) realized +$69 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$874now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$66
crypto 20% −$92
sports 18% +$49
tech 6% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 29% -4.5%
≤30d 24 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 29% -4.5%
≤90d 24 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 29% -4.5%
all 24 -16.7% -24.6% 33% 29% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 29% -4.5%
10% -31.8% 29% -13.6%
15% -38.4% 29% -21.9%
20% -44.4% 25% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$17 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$874
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)24 / 31
History coverage5d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 14¢ $100 $200 +$100 (+100%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $200 $184 −$16 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $92 −$7 (-7%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$59 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $27 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $222 +$102 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$12 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $133 +$8 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $101 +$65 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $10 −$1 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $15 +$16 +103%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $325 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $104 6h
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $203 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $105 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $27 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 24h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $17 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 36h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Melsik Baghdasaryan 19¢ $9 46h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main SELL Andre Fili 63¢ $31 47h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $15 47h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Melsik Baghdasaryan 20¢ $10 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $873.92 · official $873.92 (match) · 60 history records