Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:07:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd3…1a93 other 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 312d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%39W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% +$3
other 26% $0
politics 16% −$1
sports 14% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% −$1
finance 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.2% 25% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 22 -0.4% -9.9% 45% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 72 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 0% -9.4%
all 118 -0.7% -10.2% 33% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

312d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses39 / 79
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)118 / 123
History coverage312d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 82¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 46¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+99%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $82 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $133 +$3 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $123 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $46 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$1 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $46 −$4 -8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $77 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $126 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $83 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $82 +$4 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $78 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $13 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $3 $0 +4%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $44 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $7 $0 -3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $115 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $77 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $192 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $77 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 84¢ $38 28m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $41 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $37 11h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $35 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $39 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 33h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 34h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 3d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $41 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $10 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $35 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $46 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.43 · official $36.90 · 509 history records