Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd3…5896 sports 196 markets active 6d ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,270 (-11%) realized −$5,270 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%88W / 108L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$776est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$922
14 days−$1,404
30 days−$2,749
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,600
other 2% −$807
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 96 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 42% -20.6%
≤90d 196 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 45% -19.7%
all 196 -2.5% -11.8% 45% 45% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 45% -19.7%
10% -20.3% 44% -27.3%
15% -28.0% 44% -34.4%
20% -35.0% 44% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$255 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses88 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$776
Open positions0
Markets (closed)196 / 196
History coverage33d
Avg bet$247
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 196 Trades
no open positions (106 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $936 −$922 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $234 +$266 +114%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $400 −$400 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $508 +$492 +97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $255 −$255 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $235 −$235 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $270 −$270 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 06 $177 −$177 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $244 −$240 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $264 +$336 +127%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Jun 01 $440 −$67 -15%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 May 31 $228 −$228 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $239 +$261 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 30 $252 −$252 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $244 +$256 +105%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 30 $265 −$265 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ch May 30 $93 +$118 +127%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 May 30 $264 −$264 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 30 $251 −$251 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 30 $229 −$225 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 28 $2 +$5 +222%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 May 28 $258 +$342 +133%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 May 28 $251 +$264 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 27 $318 −$318 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 May 27 $348 +$374 +107%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals May 27 $97 +$90 +92%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 27 $215 −$215 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 May 27 $239 −$235 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 May 27 $143 +$157 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 May 27 $4 +$6 +144%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 May 26 $61 −$61 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals May 26 $105 −$105 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 26 $264 −$264 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 May 26 $247 −$247 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 May 26 $264 −$264 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 26 $264 −$264 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $258 −$258 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $255 −$255 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 26 $229 −$225 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $214 +$286 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 26 $258 +$292 +113%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 May 26 $246 +$354 +144%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $210 +$290 +138%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 25 $224 +$276 +124%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 May 25 $190 +$310 +163%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 May 25 $249 −$249 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 May 25 $255 −$255 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 May 24 $154 +$191 +124%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $180 +$320 +178%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 May 24 $3 +$4 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $936 6d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $234 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 40¢ $400 9d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 51¢ $255 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $208 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $508 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $27 10d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $112 10d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $158 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 43¢ $151 10d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 43¢ $26 10d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 40¢ $244 12d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $29 13d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $52 13d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $50 13d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 44¢ $134 13d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees SELL Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $373 15d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 38¢ $0 16d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 38¢ $74 16d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 38¢ $153 16d
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $252 17d
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 47¢ $239 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 53¢ $265 17d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ch BUY Yes 44¢ $93 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $133 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $12 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $73 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 716 history records