Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:54:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cd4…47b0 economics 6 markets active 152d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,791 (-51%) realized −$22,791 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,472per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 100% −$22,794
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 6 -42.9% -48.3% 0% 0% -55.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.3% 0% -55.5%
10% -53.3% 0% -59.8%
15% ← realistic here -57.8% 0% -63.7%
20% -61.9% 0% -67.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
40.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$3,799 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22,791
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7,472
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Jan 27 $13,888 −$7,610 -55%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Jan 27 $1,065 −$275 -26%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Jan 23 $313 −$42 -13%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $963 −$684 -71%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 23 $16,601 −$11,183 -67%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $12,000 −$3,000 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL Yes 9¢ $6,277 152d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $789 152d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 18¢ $14 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 18¢ $605 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $6 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $2 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $2 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $12 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $0 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $0 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $0 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $12 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $28 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $0 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $2 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $23 155d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $1 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $2 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $1 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $13 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $0 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $12 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 20¢ $160 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 20¢ $4 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $0 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $72 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 20¢ $288 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $6 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY Yes 20¢ $375 156d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 2¢ $28 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records