Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3C 0x3cd7…6d2d crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$475 (+11%) realized +$544 · open −$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$254
7 days+$254
14 days+$254
30 days+$601
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$98
crypto 32% +$141
politics 18% +$277
sports 10% +$60
world 7% +$84
finance 1% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +105.5% +85.9% 67% 67% +77.3%
≤30d 6 +120.5% +99.5% 83% 83% +92.0%
≤90d 12 +43.9% +30.2% 58% 58% +56.8%
all 29 +10.7% +0.1% 62% 52% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 52% +5.7%
10% -9.5% 41% -4.4%
15% -18.2% 31% -13.6%
20% -26.2% 28% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$53 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,170
Realized+$544
Unrealized−$69
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions12
Markets (closed)29 / 42
History coverage112d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 32¢ 34¢ $406 $419 +$13 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $250 $237 −$13 (-5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $112 $150 +$37 (+33%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $150 $130 −$20 (-13%)
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 49¢ 46¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 63¢ 16¢ $100 $25 −$75 (-75%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+133%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 55¢ 24¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $52 +$152 +296%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $203 +$105 +52%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $101 +$37 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $70 +$140 +200%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 24 $100 +$170 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $31 −$7 -21%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $25 +$15 +60%
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United? May 17 $200 +$131 +66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 04 $43 −$43 -99%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 09 $200 +$36 +18%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $292 +$84 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 08 $200 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 08 $630 +$121 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 28 $90 −$51 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 28 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 28 $20 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 28 $30 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 28 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 28 $15 +$9 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 28 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 28 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $109 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $103 1h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $205 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 14h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 74¢ $13 11d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 11d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $101 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 19d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 26d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 26d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 26d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $23 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,170.27 · official $1,370.27 · 227 history records