Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3cd7…e885 sports 201 markets active 3h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18 (+5%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%70W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$40
crypto 11% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -2.9% -12.2% 31% 31% -13.2%
≤30d 201 +7.4% -2.8% 35% 34% -6.0%
≤90d 201 +7.4% -2.8% 35% 34% -6.0%
all 201 +7.4% -2.8% 35% 34% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 34% -6.0%
10% -12.1% 34% -15.0%
15% -20.6% 33% -23.2%
20% -28.4% 32% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses70 / 131
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage24d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (108 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $1 +$2 +215%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $3 +$3 +101%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $1 −$1 -51%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $2 +$4 +188%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $1 −$1 -68%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 16 $1 +$2 +196%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +85%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs WAZABI (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division 1 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1 +$1 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +197%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Arch (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +165%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $2 +$4 +165%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3) - TESFE Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$5 +441%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -89%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi Jun 13 $2 −$1 -72%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$3 +275%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$2 +165%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - ROG Jou Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Academy vs Washed (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Jun 13 $1 −$1 -72%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B SELL Flame Team 100¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division SELL Fortress 100¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner SELL Fortress 100¢ $13 3h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 49¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls - Map 2 Winner BUY Fortress 93¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division SELL AaB Bulls 6¢ $0 4h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 18¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY Flame Team 31¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY Fortress 36¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 1¢ $0 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 5¢ $1 8h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL INOX Division 93¢ $4 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 19¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 69¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY INOX Division 25¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 37¢ $1 10h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Alpha Gaming 9¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Alpha Gaming 32¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 32¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ODDIK Academy 49¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL LPH Gaming 95¢ $6 33h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Infinite 26¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK Academy 37¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 35¢ $1 33h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 31¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY LPH Gaming 30¢ $1 35h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series SELL MARKandLARRY 6¢ $0 35h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 18¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL DFX Peek 100¢ $3 39h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY DFX Peek 33¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records