Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:04:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cd9…95a5 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$83 (+7%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days−$23
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$37
sports 10% +$80
world 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +22.3% +10.7% 38% 38% -11.5%
≤30d 38 +32.6% +20.0% 39% 39% -7.6%
≤90d 38 +32.6% +20.0% 39% 39% -7.6%
all 38 +32.6% +20.0% 39% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.0% 39% -7.6%
10% +8.5% 37% -16.5%
15% -2.0% 34% -24.6%
20% -11.6% 24% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$16 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $145 $145 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $42 +$16 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$11 -42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $83 +$39 +46%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$11 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 +$20 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $42 +$27 +63%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 +$13 +27%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$28 +131%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $178 −$130 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $126 +$51 +40%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $89 +$38 +42%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +309%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$13 +1257%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Neymar Jr: 1+ assists Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $84 −$66 -78%
Neymar Jr: 1+ shots Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$50 +236%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$30 +570%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$21 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$16 +155%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $63 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $53 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 6h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $21 9h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $21 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 30¢ $19 30h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $54 36h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $21 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $47 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 23¢ $48 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $178 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $126 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.75 · official $164.75 (match) · 93 history records