Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3cdd…db30 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$528 (-14%) realized −$410 · open −$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%6W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$362
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$481
crypto 7% −$46
other 4% −$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -27.9% -34.7% 21% 21% -13.3%
≤30d 32 -34.6% -40.9% 19% 19% -18.7%
≤90d 37 -43.5% -48.8% 16% 16% -25.0%
all 37 -43.5% -48.8% 16% 16% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 16% -25.0%
10% -53.7% 16% -32.2%
15% -58.2% 16% -38.7%
20% -62.3% 16% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$73 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$410
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses6 / 31
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage68d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ 16¢ $200 $82 −$118 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $63 −$61 -98%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $137 +$257 +188%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $89 +$345 +388%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $201 −$6 -3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 −$38 -81%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $102 −$7 -7%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $127 −$125 -99%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $80 +$127 +158%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $72 −$71 -98%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $196 +$673 +344%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $148 −$145 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $169 −$167 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $128 −$126 -98%
ITF Bucharest: Nada Fouad vs Alessia Marinescu Jun 17 $151 −$149 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$49 -97%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $248 +$251 +101%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $31 +$60 +197%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $57 −$56 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $59 −$58 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $53 −$52 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $58 −$57 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek May 29 $80 −$77 -97%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem, Qualification: Lisa Zaar vs Alana Sm May 17 $56 −$55 -98%
Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek vs Daria Snigur Apr 23 $56 −$55 -97%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Marta Kostyuk vs Tatjana Maria Apr 18 $104 −$101 -97%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 12 $40 −$39 -98%
BMW Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Alex Molcan Apr 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 40¢ $204 57m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 42¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $63 17h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 8¢ $13 17h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 28¢ $48 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 13¢ $41 18h
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen BUY Billy Harris 20¢ $2 18h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $394 18h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 34¢ $137 20h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $434 20h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 20¢ $89 23h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 16¢ $103 23h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 40¢ $305 24h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 28¢ $102 25h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 19¢ $102 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $195 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $101 29h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 40h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova SELL Hernan Casanova 41¢ $91 40h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $48 40h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 42¢ $102 40h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 56¢ $127 42h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Talia Gibson 100¢ $208 42h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 38¢ $80 44h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 50¢ $72 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.50 · official $82.50 (match) · 52 history records