Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cde…c4a7 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$120 (-13%) realized −$115 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate46%40W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days−$22
14 days−$78
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$70
crypto 10% −$11
sports 6% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -4.7% -13.8% 56% 47% -13.3%
≤30d 87 -22.7% -30.1% 46% 39% -22.4%
≤90d 87 -22.7% -30.1% 46% 39% -22.4%
all 87 -22.7% -30.1% 46% 39% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 39% -22.4%
10% -36.8% 29% -29.9%
15% -42.9% 25% -36.6%
20% -48.5% 21% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$115
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses40 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)87 / 91
History coverage14d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 28¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$31 +124%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $5 +$1 +14%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $50 +$17 +34%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 +$5 +48%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$10 +97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $131 +$39 +30%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $3 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +69%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$7 +712%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +129%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +5%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1 +$1 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1 +$1 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +88%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +69%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +140%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $1 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $80 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $15 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? SELL No 100¢ $53 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 88¢ $170 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $10 22h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 22h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 22h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 87¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria? BUY No 94¢ $50 23h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 23h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 25h
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 26h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.05 · official $215.06 (match) · 143 history records