Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3cdf…ddf8 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$448 (-19%) realized −$427 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$339per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$333now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$489
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 60% -30.8%
≤30d 5 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 60% -30.8%
≤90d 5 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 60% -30.8%
all 5 -6.0% -14.9% 60% 60% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 60% -30.8%
10% -23.1% 60% -37.4%
15% -30.5% 60% -43.5%
20% -37.3% 40% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$516 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$333
Realized−$427
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$339
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $173 $175 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $181 $158 −$22 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $697 −$684 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $407 +$290 +71%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $354 −$348 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $304 +$163 +54%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $247 +$111 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $177 59m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $185 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $697 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $697 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $354 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $407 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $304 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $247 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.43 · official $333.64 (match) · 10 history records