Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

3C 0x3ce1…f476 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$136 (+15%) realized +$202 · open −$66

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip

Net edge+0%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate62%10W / 6L

Drawdown40%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day8.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+8.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+20.3%	+8.8%	62%	50%	+11.4%
≤30d	16	+20.3%	+8.8%	62%	50%	+11.4%
≤90d	16	+20.3%	+8.8%	62%	50%	+11.4%
all	16	+20.3%	+8.8%	62%	50%	+11.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.8%	50%	+11.4%
10%	-1.6%	50%	+0.8%
15%	-11.1%	50%	-9.0%
20%	-19.8%	38%	-17.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 36% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +47% → late -7% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$25 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.14 per $1 lost it wins $2.14

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$110

Realized+$202

Unrealized−$66

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses10 / 6

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage3d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day8.1

Drawdown40%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$111	$110	−$1 (-1%)
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	28¢	0¢	$28	$0	−$28 (-100%)
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	38¢	0¢	$37	$0	−$37 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$91	+$8	+9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$68	+$32	+48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$85	−$85	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$151	+$72	+48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Jun 20	$33	−$32	-96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$60	+$40	+67%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$59	+$41	+70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$61	+$39	+65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 19	$1	−$1	-95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$36	+$39	+109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$19	+$1	+7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$28	+$16	+57%
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$6	+$27	+440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-94%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$112	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	99¢	$99	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	91¢	$91	1h
Will RCA Zemamra win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	28¢	$29	3h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	38¢	$38	4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$68	19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	85¢	$85	19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$224	19h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	19h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY Yes	75¢	$33	19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$151	22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$100	22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	59¢	$60	25h
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	15¢	$15	26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$59	44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$61	47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$1	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	93¢	$19	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$36	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$44	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$28	2d
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$33	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	3d
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	55¢	$10	3d
Will FathUnionSport win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	18¢	$6	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.39 · official $110.41 (match) · 30 history records