Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3ce3…885d crypto 735 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$875 (-10%) realized −$859 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate52%399W / 361L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$836
7 days−$515
14 days−$1,179
30 days−$1,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$226
other 22% −$213
world 1% −$51
sports 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -66.7% -69.9% 16% 16% -41.8%
≤30d 73 -70.8% -73.6% 14% 14% -54.5%
≤90d 760 -17.3% -25.1% 52% 29% -23.7%
all 760 -17.3% -25.1% 52% 29% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 29% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 15% -31.0%
15% -38.8% 9% -37.7%
20% -44.8% 6% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$667
Realized−$859
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses399 / 361
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)760 / 735
History coverage89d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 760 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $37 $39 +$2 (+5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $35 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$7 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$16 -142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$3 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$7 -1621%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$6 -140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$6 -129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 12h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $50 12h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $36 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 12h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 12h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 12h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $666.70 · official $667.47 (match) · 3500 history records