Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ce4…1359 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$1
politics 12% $0
economics 12% $0
world 6% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 16 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage104d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Jun 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $82 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $82 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $83 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $83 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $84 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $84 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 15 $84 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $46 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $46 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $82 13d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $82 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $82 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $82 27d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 38d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $82 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $82 42d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $82 43d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 44d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $82 48d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $82 49d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $82 50d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $82 50d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $83 66d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $83 66d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $83 69d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $83 70d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $83 72d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 73d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 73d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $83 81d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 81d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $84 83d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $84 83d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 87d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 88d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records