Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
3C 0x3ce8…4dd6 sports 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$379 (-2%) realized −$379 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%30W / 23L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$206est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days−$172
14 days−$532
30 days−$395
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$105
other 3% −$500
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.7% -21.9% 54% 54% -21.4%
≤30d 53 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 57% -11.5%
≤90d 53 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 57% -11.5%
all 53 +8.3% -2.0% 57% 57% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 57% -11.5%
10% -11.4% 53% -20.0%
15% -20.0% 42% -27.7%
20% -27.8% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$191 vs −$266 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$379
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$206
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage14d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $102 +$111 +109%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $101 +$20 +20%
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $101 +$48 +48%
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 18 $101 +$28 +27%
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han Jun 17 $101 +$36 +36%
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $102 +$136 +134%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $252 +$42 +17%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 14 $509 +$249 +49%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $505 −$500 -99%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $505 +$220 +44%
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 11 $354 +$456 +129%
ITF Wichita: Pavle Marinkov vs Duncan Chan Jun 11 $505 +$241 +48%
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 11 $395 −$389 -99%
ITF Guimaraes: Katherine Sebov vs Chelsea Fontenel Jun 11 $94 −$92 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Carmen Andreea Herea vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 11 $303 −$298 -98%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 11 $494 −$486 -98%
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair Jun 11 $505 −$500 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 11 $1,004 −$319 -32%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 11 $504 +$190 +38%
ITF Wichita: Lucas Marionneau vs Daniel Milavsky Jun 11 $351 +$490 +140%
ITF Maanshan: Kasidit Samrej vs Pawit Sornlaksup Jun 11 $282 +$610 +216%
ITF Tokyo: Mao Mushika vs Kanon Sawashiro Jun 11 $505 −$500 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Taisei Ichikawa vs Takuya Kumasaka Jun 11 $506 −$500 -99%
ITF Los Angeles: Tanishk Konduri vs Maxwell Exsted Jun 11 $504 −$500 -99%
ITF Los Angeles: Matic Kriznik vs Miles Jones Jun 11 $101 +$71 +70%
ITF Nice: Nika Hurkacz vs Denislava Glushkova Jun 10 $504 +$170 +34%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $506 −$500 -99%
ITF Casablanca: Noemi Maines vs Lorena Solar Donoso Jun 10 $504 +$154 +31%
Tucuman: Nicolas Villalon vs Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Jun 10 $493 +$177 +36%
ITF Nice: Jenny Lim vs Margaux Rouvroy Jun 10 $175 +$601 +344%
ITF Casablanca: Vaidehi Chaudhari vs Maria Garcia Cid Jun 10 $506 +$288 +57%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Emma Ottavia Ghirardato vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 10 $14 +$49 +344%
ITF Casablanca: Lina Bezza vs Verena Meliss Jun 10 $50 +$20 +40%
ITF Zagreb: Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Caroline Werner Jun 10 $504 +$181 +36%
ITF San Gregorio: Maria Toma vs Alessandra Mazzola Jun 10 $504 +$181 +36%
ITF Maanshan: Aoran Wang vs Stefan Storch Jun 10 $243 +$340 +140%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Valeriya Strakhova Jun 10 $265 −$259 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mutsumi Uemura Jun 10 $354 −$348 -98%
ITF Wichita: Pavle Marinkov vs Ryan Colby Jun 09 $995 −$131 -13%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $32 +$10 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $504 +$163 +32%
Cattolica: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Matej Dodig Jun 09 $505 +$252 +50%
ITF Wuning: Chenting Zhu vs Daria Khomutsianskaya Jun 09 $807 −$92 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Adam Walton 47¢ $102 1h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji BUY Dayeon Back 83¢ $101 38h
ITF Ystad: Madison Sieg vs Lucie Petruzelova BUY Lucie Petruzelova 17¢ $102 2d
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Hunter Heck BUY Naoya Honda 43¢ $102 3d
ITF Taipei: Yuno Kitahara vs Thasaporn Naklo BUY Thasaporn Naklo 62¢ $101 3d
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 37¢ $102 4d
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Chenting Zhu 67¢ $101 4d
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Jiaqi Wang BUY Jiaqi Wang 78¢ $101 4d
ITF Klosters: Tanguy Genier vs Nicolas Kobelt BUY Nicolas Kobelt 63¢ $101 5d
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Jiangxue Han BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 73¢ $101 5d
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Haruka Kaji BUY Hikaru Sato 37¢ $102 5d
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 42¢ $102 6d
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 67¢ $101 6d
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella SELL Alina Shcherbinina 85¢ $295 7d
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella BUY Alina Shcherbinina 72¢ $252 7d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Eva Vedder 52¢ $254 8d
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder BUY Julia Avdeeva 33¢ $255 8d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova BUY Harriet Dart 68¢ $505 10d
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny BUY Sebastian Gorzny 43¢ $354 10d
ITF Wichita: Pavle Marinkov vs Duncan Chan BUY Duncan Chan 67¢ $505 11d
ITF Nice: Clara Burel vs Deborah Chiesa BUY Deborah Chiesa 52¢ $395 11d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 69¢ $505 11d
ITF Guimaraes: Katherine Sebov vs Chelsea Fontenel BUY Chelsea Fontenel 16¢ $94 11d
ITF San Gregorio: Carmen Andreea Herea vs Alessandra Mazzola BUY Carmen Andreea Herea 39¢ $303 11d
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo BUY Lorenzo Gagliardo 50¢ $494 11d
ITF Zagreb: Lucija Ciric Bagaric vs Laura Mair BUY Lucija Ciric Bagaric 67¢ $505 11d
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Kokoro Isomura 73¢ $504 11d
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Yujia Huang 72¢ $504 11d
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Kokoro Isomura BUY Evan Zhu 68¢ $500 11d
ITF Tokyo: Mao Mushika vs Kanon Sawashiro BUY Kanon Sawashiro 68¢ $505 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records