Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3ce9…9c2d sports 636 markets active 1h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11,171 (+9%) realized +$10,999 · open +$172
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%128W / 495L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$544est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$766
7 days+$666
14 days−$517
30 days+$6,260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$12,196
politics 1% −$708
other 1% −$545
economics 0% −$343
world 0% +$250
crypto 0% +$17
tech 0% −$23
culture 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +133.3% +111.1% 11% 11% -16.2%
≤30d 73 +29.2% +16.9% 41% 22% +0.8%
≤90d 268 -20.1% -27.7% 29% 15% -3.1%
all 623 -35.7% -41.9% 21% 13% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.9% 13% -3.7%
10% -47.4% 10% -12.9%
15% -52.5% 8% -21.3%
20% -57.2% 8% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -52% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$42 · ×5.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$476
Realized+$10,999
Unrealized+$172
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses128 / 495
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$544
Open positions13
Markets (closed)623 / 636
History coverage699d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 623 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 12¢ 84¢ $40 $278 +$238 (+596%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $60 +$17 (+39%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
New pandemic in 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $22 $16 −$7 (-29%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-37%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $25 $12 −$13 (-53%)
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Yes $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Yes $13 $5 −$8 (-62%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Yes $25 $3 −$22 (-88%)
Trump out as President by June 30? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $411 −$411 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $26 +$1,224 +4757%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $802 +$68 +8%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $1,310 +$167 +13%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5,776 −$2,653 -46%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $407 +$11 +3%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $1,802 +$79 +4%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $511 +$230 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4,274 +$980 +23%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $300 +$6 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $601 +$31 +5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $26 −$26 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $5 +$57 +1109%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $270 +$5 +2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $251 +$18 +7%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $277 +$67 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,159 +$119 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $26 +$37 +144%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $501 +$23 +4%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $552 +$77 +14%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $868 −$868 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 02 $326 +$27 +8%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $284 −$284 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,055 +$108 +10%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $266 +$45 +17%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $222 +$5,491 +2469%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 May 30 $734 +$1,266 +172%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $3,553 +$936 +26%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $506 −$506 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 12¢ $41 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners $26 19h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $0 19h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks $2 19h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics $26 43h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres $411 45h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels $7 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals $12 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $15 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $26 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $54 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $5 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 92¢ $802 8d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $3 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $3 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 88¢ $1,305 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs $5 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 17¢ $26 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 22¢ $26 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $206 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $1,102 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $1,102 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $1,102 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $1,104 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 86¢ $1,105 10d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox $5 11d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox $10 11d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 97¢ $407 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $476.23 · official $476.23 (match) · 2030 history records