Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3C 0x3cea…03d4 sports 338 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11,756 (-8%) realized −$11,551 · open −$205
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%126W / 210L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$425per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$853est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4,600now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,832
7 days+$2,387
14 days+$4,624
30 days+$2,788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$12,907
other 21% +$651
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +122.2% +101.0% 59% 59% +3.1%
≤30d 66 +29.0% +16.7% 41% 41% -0.6%
≤90d 214 +2.9% -6.9% 39% 39% -8.8%
all 336 -7.3% -16.1% 38% 37% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 37% -17.4%
10% -24.1% 35% -25.3%
15% -31.4% 34% -32.5%
20% -38.2% 32% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$509 vs −$363 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$4,600
Realized−$11,551
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses126 / 210
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$853
Open positions2
Markets (closed)336 / 338
History coverage169d
Avg bet$425
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal leading at halftime? No 43¢ 42¢ $4,580 $4,382 −$198 (-4%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $225 $219 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 200 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2,045 −$2,014 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,011 +$1,062 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $395 −$386 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $100 +$67 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $612 −$600 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $335 +$605 +180%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $88 +$181 +206%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $109 +$105 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$1,045 +1444%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4,868 +$1,037 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $561 +$245 +44%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $349 +$3,051 +874%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $495 +$1,705 +344%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $271 −$271 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $435 +$237 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $571 +$423 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $419 +$319 +76%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $2,510 −$2,495 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $89 −$87 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $466 −$455 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,325 −$1,305 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $84 −$82 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $1,296 +$1,667 +129%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $130 −$128 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 04 $911 +$590 +65%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 04 $107 +$108 +101%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $12 −$12 -98%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 02 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Panama vs. Dominican Republic end in a draw? Jun 02 $57 −$56 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 02 $6 +$15 +250%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 02 $100 +$105 +105%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $93 −$91 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $45 −$44 -98%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $29 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 31 $35 −$34 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 31 $467 +$880 +188%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $213 +$149 +70%
Korea Republic vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 May 30 $105 −$103 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 30 $43 +$53 +124%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 29 $595 −$582 -98%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix - Map 2 Winner May 29 $52 −$51 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $689 +$1,112 +162%
Will Crusaders win? May 29 $82 −$80 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $40 −$39 -97%
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs Game Hunters (+1.5) May 28 $378 −$372 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? May 28 $180 −$177 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 28 $61 −$59 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $199 −$175 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $230 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $477 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $479 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $480 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $462 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 43¢ $967 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $295 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $498 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $499 7h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY No 44¢ $500 7h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 49¢ $303 7h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $580 7h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $581 7h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $582 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $476 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $197 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $197 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $534 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $306 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $306 18h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $100 22h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 32¢ $88 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $335 40h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $72 43h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $109 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,863 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,839 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $561 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $873 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $271 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,600.47 · official $4,600.47 (match) · 750 history records