Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:48:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
3C 0x3ceb…b485 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$326per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,074now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$14
other 9% −$5
tech 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -13.6%
≤90d 3 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -13.6%
all 3 -2.4% -11.7% 33% 0% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 0% -13.6%
10% -20.1% 0% -21.8%
15% -27.8% 0% -29.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1,074
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage56d
Avg bet$326
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score No 39¢ 40¢ $1,060 $1,074 +$14 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $106 −$5 -5%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? Jun 17 $18 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,079 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $97 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $100 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $106 3d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $18 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,073.59 · official $1,073.59 (match) · 9 history records