Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3cec…ff6e politics 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized +$9 · open −$16
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$433now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$16
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$6
politics 23% +$73
other 13% −$54
tech 8% −$13
economics 5% −$6
sports 3% −$2
crypto 2% −$2
culture 1% −$11
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 40 -21.5% -29.0% 12% 2% -22.0%
≤90d 83 -9.6% -18.3% 30% 8% -9.8%
all 88 -9.0% -17.7% 32% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 9% -9.6%
10% -25.6% 8% -18.3%
15% -32.8% 6% -26.2%
20% -39.4% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$433
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)88 / 93
History coverage151d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $290 $292 +$2 (+1%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $135 $132 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes 33¢ $16 $4 −$12 (-73%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-55%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 17 $26 $0 -1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 07 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 07 $7 $0 -2%
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Jun 07 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $5 −$3 -55%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $14 −$4 -27%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $3 +$3 +85%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $17 −$2 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$2 -23%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June? Jun 02 $2 $0 -3%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 02 $3 $0 -2%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 02 $6 $0 -3%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 02 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in May? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June? Jun 02 $16 −$1 -9%
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? May 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m May 29 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 29 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 29 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 29 $31 $0 -1%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $37 −$3 -7%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $700 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -52%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 29 $6 −$1 -20%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 2 May 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? May 29 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $148 in May? May 24 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $13 +$1 +6%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? May 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? May 18 $55 −$7 -12%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $175 in May? May 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, May 18 $27 −$1 -2%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 15 $97 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $195 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $93 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22? May 08 $32 −$8 -24%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 08 $94 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $294 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 1h
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? SELL No $3 2d
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No $3 2d
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? BUY No $0 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 69¢ $6 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 69¢ $6 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL No 69¢ $20 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 69¢ $11 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 69¢ $2 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY No 69¢ $3 2d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL Yes 69¢ $68 12d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY Yes 69¢ $69 12d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? SELL Yes 78¢ $7 12d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? BUY Yes 79¢ $7 12d
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? SELL No 80¢ $16 12d
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? BUY No 86¢ $17 12d
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? BUY Yes $7 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $2 12d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $6 12d
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 12d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 15d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes $1 15d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes $3 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $432.71 · official $432.71 (match) · 310 history records