Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3ced…fc54 politics 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%23W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$10
14 days−$34
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$25
other 22% −$36
sports 19% −$16
crypto 9% +$2
world 5% −$7
economics 5% $0
culture 5% −$2
finance 3% −$2
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.7% -10.1% 5% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 70 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 121 -0.8% -10.3% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 150 -0.7% -10.2% 15% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses23 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage109d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 92¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $119 $0 -0%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $55 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $64 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 19 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $158 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $83 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $449 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $237 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $58 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $52 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $57 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $42 −$2 -4%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $107 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,068 −$2 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $53 $0 -1%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $102 $0 -0%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $11 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Manuel Neuer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 10 $54 −$13 -25%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $115 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $46 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $38 −$2 -4%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $46 −$5 -10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 03 $50 $0 -1%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $668 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $43 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 5h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $60 6h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $60 11h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 94¢ $55 12h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $55 18h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $63 18h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $64 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $53 23h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $54 28h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 29h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $40 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $40 40h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 40h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 45h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 45h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 46h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $64 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $64 2d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 2d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $38 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $48 2d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $48 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.14 · official $43.14 (match) · 566 history records