Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cef…1c42 crypto 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+2%) realized +$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%69W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$59
14 days+$63
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$2
sports 15% +$18
other 13% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -13.6% -21.9% 50% 46% +2.7%
≤30d 151 -3.8% -13.0% 46% 43% -6.2%
≤90d 151 -3.8% -13.0% 46% 43% -6.2%
all 151 -3.8% -13.0% 46% 43% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 43% -6.2%
10% -21.3% 41% -15.1%
15% -28.9% 36% -23.3%
20% -35.9% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$9 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses69 / 82
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 160
History coverage26d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$6 +113%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND W Jun 23 $10 +$16 +156%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$9 +172%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$36 +71%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$39 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Julián Quiñones: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$8 +53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +142%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 2h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY 54¢ $18 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 24¢ $11 7h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 29¢ $10 9h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $10 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 8¢ $10 16h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY 31¢ $10 17h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 33h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $17 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. DR Congo BUY 25¢ $5 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Colombia vs. BUY 4¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND W BUY 38¢ $10 3d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 0¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $28.83 · 259 history records