Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3cf0…6839
sports · 116 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$106 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$4
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses53 / 62
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage86d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 1 History 115 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$296
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 22¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 74¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5) Cirstea 59¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Aryna Sabalenka 74¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Joao Fonseca 67¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Elina Svitolina 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $11 +$1 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -6%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $47 −$46 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $101 −$6 -6%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $15 +$10 +63%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $15 −$12 -76%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $15 +$4 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 02 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $24 −$24 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $15 −$5 -34%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5) Jun 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5) Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 02 $20 +$7 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $5 +$5 +90%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 02 $20 −$18 -91%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 02 $20 +$12 +60%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Svajda (+2.5) Jun 01 $5 +$5 +93%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $26 +$1 +4%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Daria Kasatkina Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 01 $11 +$5 +48%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 01 $16 −$16 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $20 +$9 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 47% −$187
other 45% +$306
crypto 8% −$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 92¢ $13 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 94¢ $12 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 82¢ $11 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 69¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 91¢ $21 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 90¢ $21 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 39h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 39h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 39h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 39h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 39h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 39h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 74¢ $47 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $47 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 52¢ $49 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 48¢ $49 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $53 10d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 96¢ $25 11d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 17¢ $4 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 91¢ $19 11d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $15 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 20% -5.0%
≤30d 98 -12.3% -20.7% 46% 42% -6.3%
≤90d 115 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 42% -9.3%
all 115 -14.5% -22.7% 46% 42% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 42% -9.3%
10% -30.1% 37% -18.0%
15% -36.8% 30% -25.9%
20% -43.0% 23% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.95 (match) · 321 history records