Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3cf1…4a2a crypto 1740 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-2%) realized −$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate87%1515W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day74.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$304now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$407
7 days−$414
14 days−$509
30 days−$504
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$32
weather 16% −$11
other 2% −$19
sports 1% −$36
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 207 -20.7% -28.3% 71% 0% -35.3%
≤30d 1746 -3.9% -13.1% 87% 22% -13.9%
≤90d 1746 -3.9% -13.1% 87% 22% -13.9%
all 1746 -3.9% -13.1% 87% 22% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 22% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 6% -22.2%
15% -29.0% 1% -29.7%
20% -36.0% 0% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$304
Realized−$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1515 / 231
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)1746 / 1740
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day74.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 1746 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 97¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 183 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 4m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $8 37m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 53m
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 57m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 58m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 96°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $18 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $18 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? SELL No 65¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 82¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 93¢ $8 12h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $9 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.48 · official $304.27 (match) · 3500 history records