Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T06:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3cf3…87b3
politics · 113 markets active 338d ago
4.0score
+$368,239 +331%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$368,239 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 0 History 113 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Kushner be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ben Carson be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 06 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 06 $44 −$44 -100%
Trump declassifies Diddy list? Mar 12 $643 +$1,241 +193%
Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned? Jan 04 $63 −$55 -88%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 04 $82 +$3,456 +4208%
Elon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? Dec 25 $19 −$7 -37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 22 $4,877 +$3,048 +62%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024? Dec 22 $103 +$152 +148%
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024? Dec 21 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits? Dec 19 $1 +$1 +50%
Supreme Court vacancy in 2024? Dec 19 $20 +$47 +238%
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 18 $1 +$1,718 +154739%
Will Jill Stein get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 18 $1 +$309 +51068%
Will another state be the closest state? Dec 18 $221 +$9 +4%
Democrats win popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 18 $2,774 +$171 +6%
GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%? Dec 18 $211 +$100,275 +47537%
GOP wins popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 15 $9,591 +$2,635 +28%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 08 $232 +$53 +23%
Will Doug Burgum be a member of the Trump administration? Dec 07 $118 +$282 +239%
Will Republicans have between 215 and 219 seats in House after electio Dec 05 $7 +$10 +154%
Will Republicans have between 225 and 229 seats in House after electio Dec 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election? Dec 05 $0 +$2,439 +1098616%
Will Republicans have between 210 and 214 seats in House after electio Dec 05 $442 +$2 +1%
Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after electio Dec 05 $205 +$4,565 +2223%
GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 04 $1,109 +$3 +0%
Will Biden finish his term? Dec 03 $2,146 +$2,291 +107%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Dec 03 $0 $0 +22%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $2,193 −$104 -5%
Will John Cornyn be the next Senate Majority Leader? Dec 03 $564 +$164 +29%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Dec 03 $42 +$13,198 +31290%
Will Biden resign in 2024? Dec 03 $1,921 +$2,263 +118%
GOP wins popular vote by 2-3%? Dec 02 $2,395 −$1,947 -81%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Dec 02 $9,656 +$14 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 4-10 years in gun case? Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 6-11 months in gun case? Dec 02 $6 +$18 +328%
Hunter Biden sentenced to 1-5 months in gun case? Dec 02 $223 +$32 +14%
No prison time for Hunter Biden in gun case? Dec 02 $74 +$6,844 +9287%
GOP wins popular vote by 6-7%? Dec 01 $8,879 +$13 +0%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Dec 01 $1,110 +$4 +0%
Will Biden resign in November? Dec 01 $2,169 +$2,583 +119%
Israel military strike against Iran in November? Dec 01 $157 +$65 +42%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Nov 30 $2,003 −$1,204 -60%
Will the Republican candidate win Wisconsin by 2.0%-3.0%? Nov 30 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the Democratic candidate win Wisconsin by 2%-3.0%? Nov 30 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the Democratic candidate win Wisconsin by 1%-2.0%? Nov 30 $554 +$1 +0%
Will the Democratic candidate win Wisconsin by 0%-1.0%? Nov 30 $554 +$1 +0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Nov 29 $357 +$1,270 +355%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 54% +$248,215
other 32% +$104,278
economics 8% +$6,986
finance 4% +$89
world 3% +$8,551
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? SELL Yes $1 338d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 87¢ $1,257 457d
Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio? SELL Yes 26¢ $36 512d
Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio? SELL Yes 26¢ $51 519d
Vivek replaces Vance as U.S. senator for Ohio? SELL Yes $5 522d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 83¢ $184 523d
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? SELL Yes 92¢ $102 523d
Will Trump's hush money conviction be overturned? SELL Yes $8 523d
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? SELL Yes 91¢ $92 523d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 80¢ $9 523d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 80¢ $5 524d
Trump declassifies Diddy list? SELL No 80¢ $74 524d
Manchester City wins the Premier League? SELL No 98¢ $109 526d
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? SELL No 99¢ $352 533d
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? SELL No 99¢ $1 533d
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? SELL No 99¢ $6 533d
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? SELL No 99¢ $6 534d
Will the US ban sharing deepfake nudes in 2024? SELL No 99¢ $1 534d
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden? SELL Yes $12 534d
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? SELL Yes $2 534d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $79 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $68 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 535d
FTX doesn't start payouts in 2024? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 535d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+431.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 113 +487.5% +431.6% 75% 56% +161.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +431.6% 56% +161.4%
10% ← realistic here +380.7% 53% +136.4%
15% +334.3% 50% +113.5%
20% +291.7% 48% +92.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records