Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3cf6…8649 crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$56 (+0%) realized +$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate70%23W / 10L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$25
other 25% +$8
politics 23% −$6
tech 3% +$1
sports 2% +$21
economics 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.8% +15.7% 100% 100% +15.7%
≤30d 2 +14.1% +3.2% 100% 50% +3.3%
≤90d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 14% -8.8%
all 33 +1.4% -8.2% 70% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.0% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.42 per $1 lost it wins $9.42
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage261d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 99¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $75 +$21 +28%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 08 $75 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 03 $75 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? Apr 01 $89 +$1 +2%
Will Tesla dip to $263 in March? Apr 01 $381 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $2,288 +$14 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? Mar 24 $2,664 +$5 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 21 $2,655 +$9 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? Mar 02 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? Mar 02 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Feb 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? Feb 07 $34 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Feb 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $33 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 12 $110 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 30 $103 +$6 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Dec 10 $12 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Dec 10 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Nov 29 $24 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $44 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Nov 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Nov 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 11 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 03 $102 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 03 $2,459 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $75 11d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $75 38d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $75 71d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2,288 86d
Will Tesla dip to $263 in March? BUY No 100¢ $381 86d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? SELL No 100¢ $2,669 87d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $2,664 90d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? SELL No 100¢ $2,664 90d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? BUY No 99¢ $2,655 93d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in March? BUY No 98¢ $89 110d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $54 130d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $160 by end of February? BUY No 97¢ $33 130d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 130d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? SELL No 99¢ $110 130d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? BUY No 99¢ $110 133d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $76 140d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $43 140d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $34 143d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $33 143d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 143d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $43 149d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $33 149d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 149d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $44 149d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $44 159d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $32 159d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 159d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $110 172d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 97¢ $79 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.83 · official $117.83 (match) · 99 history records