Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3C 0x3cf6…cf01 crypto 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$305 (-11%) realized −$301 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%86W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$186
other 24% +$6
sports 15% −$140
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.9% -18.5% 0% 0% -18.5%
≤30d 2 -9.9% -18.5% 0% 0% -18.5%
≤90d 2 -9.9% -18.5% 0% 0% -18.5%
all 305 -19.6% -27.3% 28% 27% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 27% -20.9%
10% -34.2% 25% -28.4%
15% -40.6% 24% -35.3%
20% -46.4% 21% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses86 / 219
Open positions3
Markets (closed)305 / 308
History coverage154d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 23 $5 $0 -8%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-05? Mar 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $5 +$32 +648%
Will Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 12 $10 +$5 +51%
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Feb 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $21 +$10 +47%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $25 +$65 +260%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $5 +$24 +488%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5 Feb 07 $5 +$5 +104%
Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Feb 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Feb 07 $5 −$5 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5 Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Feb 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Feb 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 05 $5 +$5 +104%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-05? Feb 05 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-05? Feb 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 04 $6 −$4 -66%
Solana Up or Down - February 4, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Feb 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 24¢ $5 54m
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 25¢ $5 55m
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 63¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-05? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 109d
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 117d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 117d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 117d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 125d
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 125d
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 125d
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $5 125d
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 125d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 126d
Will Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 126d
Girona FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $5 126d
Will Girona FC win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 126d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 126d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 130d
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 130d
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $5 130d
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 130d
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 130d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) BUY Arsenal FC 37¢ $5 130d
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) BUY Arsenal FC 11¢ $5 130d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 130d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.03 · official $101.42 (match) · 698 history records