Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3cf6…0cbd sports 589 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$69,851 (-11%) realized −$69,852 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%186W / 401L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,121per market
Trades / day39.9pace
Fees−$6,149est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,258
7 days−$45,888
14 days−$50,945
30 days−$61,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$72,096
other 3% −$1,077
finance 0% −$116
world 0% −$119
crypto 0% +$82
politics 0% −$73
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -2.5% -11.8% 51% 46% -48.2%
≤30d 437 -8.9% -17.6% 36% 31% -18.8%
≤90d 587 -9.4% -18.0% 32% 26% -19.7%
all 587 -9.4% -18.0% 32% 26% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 26% -19.7%
10% -25.9% 25% -27.3%
15% ← realistic here -33.0% 24% -34.4%
20% -39.6% 22% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$586) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$673 vs −$503 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized−$69,852
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses186 / 401
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$6,149
Open positions2
Markets (closed)587 / 589
History coverage59d
Avg bet$1,121
Trades / day39.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 587 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ 52¢ $265 $262 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 35¢ 36¢ $222 $225 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 190 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,858 +$142 +4%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,068 −$1,063 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,147 +$1,143 +100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $341 +$149 +44%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $131 +$149 +114%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $341 +$149 +44%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $505 +$492 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $825 −$725 -88%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $199 −$196 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $33 −$33 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $227 −$224 -98%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $74 −$73 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $429 +$196 +46%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$143 +250%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $933 −$919 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $97 −$95 -99%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 15 $267 −$263 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 15 $471 −$464 -99%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$72 +146%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $447 +$553 +124%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $207 +$313 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16,849 −$16,594 -98%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $57 +$8 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $591 −$582 -99%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $503 +$467 +93%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $677 +$583 +86%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $68 −$67 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $147 −$145 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $146 −$144 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $147 −$145 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 +$45 +83%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $133 +$152 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$221 +146%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $155 +$145 +93%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $7,361 +$7,427 +101%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 14 $86 −$84 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $572 +$868 +152%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $239 −$235 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,001 −$1,000 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $4,208 −$4,123 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,290 −$1,290 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,388 +$56 +4%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $432 +$358 +83%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $274 +$75 +27%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $269 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $9 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $527 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $320 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $80 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $930 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 96¢ $47 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 97¢ $1,940 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $26 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $79 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $11 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $40 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $8 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $40 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $12 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $59 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $30 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $5 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $4 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $39 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $86 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $24 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $43 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $487.17 · official $487.17 (match) · 2628 history records