Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3cf7…d35e crypto 232 markets active 2d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-2%) realized −$68 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%214W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$30
14 days−$74
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$72
politics 5% +$2
finance 1% −$4
sports 1% +$1
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 226 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 226 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 0% -11.6%
all 226 -2.5% -11.8% 95% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 0% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 0% -20.1%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses214 / 12
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)226 / 232
History coverage10d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 99¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $19 +$1 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 46h
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 98¢ $20 46h
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 99¢ $20 46h
Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic pr BUY No 99¢ $20 46h
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? BUY No 99¢ $20 46h
Will Elaine Luria be the Democratic nominee for VA-02? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.51 · official $114.50 (match) · 451 history records