Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:20:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3C 0x3cf9…59d9 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$48 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$46
sports 4% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤30d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤90d 4 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.2%
all 4 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 0% -6.2%
10% -15.8% 0% -15.2%
15% -24.0% 0% -23.4%
20% -31.4% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,109
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 61¢ 59¢ $1,155 $1,109 −$46 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,164 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 20h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Scotland 98¢ $5 22h
Spread: Brazil (-5.5) BUY Scotland 99¢ $10 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $20 22h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 98¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,109.29 · official $1,109.29 (match) · 10 history records