Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T12:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3cff…6fbd other 569 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (208 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$3 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate78%311W / 88L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day208.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$264
14 days+$424
30 days+$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$155
world 33% +$118
tech 11% +$17
politics 8% +$50
finance 7% +$23
economics 3% +$8
sports 1% +$28
culture 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (208 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 +22.3% +10.7% 67% 24% +1.4%
≤30d 399 +17.9% +6.7% 78% 21% -0.9%
≤90d 399 +17.9% +6.7% 78% 21% -0.9%
all 399 +17.9% +6.7% 78% 21% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.7% 21% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here -3.5% 19% -10.4%
15% -12.8% 17% -19.0%
20% -21.4% 15% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$868
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses311 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions247
Markets (closed)399 / 569
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day208.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 247 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 70¢ 69¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 76¢ 69¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republican Party win the MN-04 House seat? No 94¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No 93¢ 92¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison? No 93¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 86¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31? No 93¢ 89¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Russia coup attempt in 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day? No 88¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day? No 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day? No 91¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the NE-01 House seat? No 84¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 29 $1 $0 +82%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 29 $0 $0 +127%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +95%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 29 $1 $0 -38%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -94%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 29 $10 −$9 -96%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 29 $4 +$9 +201%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? Jun 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? Jun 29 $6 $0 +2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-03 House seat? Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Jun 28 $4 $0 -2%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Jun 28 $8 −$4 -49%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 28 $5 +$10 +202%
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? Jun 28 $4 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? Jun 28 $4 $0 +1%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Jun 28 $4 +$9 +203%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $13 $0 +1%
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 27 $5 $0 -1%
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $9 $0 +1%
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen Jun 27 $4 $0 -7%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 27 $8 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 27 $19 $0 +2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 27 $5 $0 +9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 27 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +12%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $151 +$2 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $4 +$10 +245%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 27 $15 −$3 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 27 $13 +$4 +32%
OKX IPO in 2026? Jun 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $3 +$4 +113%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $4 $0 -1%
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? Jun 26 $4 $0 -4%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 26 $8 $0 +5%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 26 $4 +$8 +201%
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 25 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 25 $4 $0 -1%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Jun 25 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL No 88¢ $4 31m
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? SELL No 79¢ $2 1h
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $9 2h
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 3h
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 4h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 4h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 6h
Will the Democratic Party win the LA-03 House seat? SELL No 96¢ $5 8h
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 9h
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $4 9h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? SELL No 81¢ $4 15h
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? SELL No 68¢ $7 17h
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 21h
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 22h
GTA VI released before November 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 26h
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 28h
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 28h
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? SELL No 85¢ $4 30h
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $4 33h
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 89¢ $4 40h
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 94¢ $6 40h
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $5 41h
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? SELL No 41¢ $2 41h
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 43h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL No 82¢ $3 44h
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec gen SELL No 82¢ $2 44h
Iran nuclear test before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $9 45h
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay SELL No 85¢ $9 2d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $867.99 · official $827.13 · 3000 history records