Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3D 0x3d01…76a8 crypto 45 markets active 15h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$538 (-10%) realized −$542 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate77%33W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$114
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$204
world 12% −$81
politics 6% −$120
other 6% −$80
finance 2% +$12
tech 1% −$30
sports 1% −$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 73% 36% -23.3%
≤30d 11 -5.9% -14.9% 73% 36% -23.3%
≤90d 43 -7.0% -15.9% 77% 33% -19.4%
all 43 -7.0% -15.9% 77% 33% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 33% -19.4%
10% -23.9% 7% -27.1%
15% -31.3% 0% -34.1%
20% -38.0% 0% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$85 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$542
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses33 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage82d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $78 $81 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $77 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $67 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $59 +$8 +14%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$10 +19%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 18 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$4 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $75 −$30 -40%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $64 +$10 +16%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 14 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 10 $430 −$430 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 10 $409 +$21 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 10 $397 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 10 $370 +$27 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 10 $359 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 10 $354 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 10 $314 +$40 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 10 $306 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 10 $254 +$52 +20%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 10 $297 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 09 $31 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 09 $30 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 09 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Apr 09 $87 −$87 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 09 $81 +$5 +6%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Apr 07 $99 +$7 +7%
LoL: Fnatic vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $56 −$1 -1%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $26 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 30 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 30 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 30 $19 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 30 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 30 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 30 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 29 $58 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $41 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Mar 29 $35 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 29 $27 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 29 $23 +$3 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $78 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $78 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $75 26h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $67 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $59 47h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 88¢ $60 47h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in BUY Yes 89¢ $61 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 2d
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $45 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $45 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $75 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $64 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY 86¢ $79 5d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 41¢ $63 16d
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY Yes 89¢ $64 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $430 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $409 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $397 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $370 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $359 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $354 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $314 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $306 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $254 71d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $254 71d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $31 71d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.28 · official $81.28 (match) · 101 history records