Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:59:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3d02…d900 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 231d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$381 (+0%) realized +$375 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%176W / 20L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$1,768per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$7,148
weather 4% −$131
other 2% −$55
politics 0% +$1,161
sports 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -1.0% -10.4% 86% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 71 -1.3% -10.7% 85% 1% -10.5%
≤90d 71 -1.3% -10.7% 85% 1% -10.5%
all 196 +0.6% -8.9% 90% 4% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 4% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 2% -16.3%
15% -25.6% 2% -24.4%
20% -32.9% 1% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$2,749) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$291 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.39 per $1 lost it wins $2.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized+$375
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses176 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)196 / 200
History coverage232d ⚠
Avg bet$1,768
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $325 $327 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $265 $269 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $150 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $148 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 18? Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 18? Jun 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $400 +$35 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 17? Jun 17 $541 +$29 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 17? Jun 17 $971 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $949 +$22 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $293 −$260 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Jun 16 $181 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $571 +$46 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 14 $389 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 15? Jun 14 $372 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $112 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $175 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $156 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $506 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $434 +$42 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 13? Jun 13 $312 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $571 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 12? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $423 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C or higher on June 1 Jun 11 $62 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $147 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 11 $534 +$35 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 −$23 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $521 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 11? Jun 10 $93 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $122 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? SELL No 90¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $112 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $148 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $17 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $136 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $89 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $177 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $164 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $60 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $200 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $88 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $8 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $243 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $69 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.92 · official $893.92 (match) · 3500 history records