Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:58:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d03…c0fe world 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate39%27W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$8
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$16
other 16% −$9
politics 16% $0
sports 7% +$2
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.7% -5.2% 67% 11% -7.5%
≤30d 29 +1.2% -8.4% 41% 7% -10.2%
≤90d 61 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 5% -9.9%
all 69 -0.1% -9.6% 39% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -10.1%
10% -18.2% 6% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses27 / 42
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage521d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $46 $41 −$5 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $88 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $45 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $8 +$2 +28%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 +$4 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $159 −$13 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $137 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $57 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $41 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $68 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $134 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $41 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $3 $0 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $22 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $27 −$2 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $130 −$4 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $94 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $52 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 −$2 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $4 +$1 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $151 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $170 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $16 −$1 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $45 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2 $0 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $112 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $45 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 19h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $41 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.09 · official $40.85 (match) · 353 history records