Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:17:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3D 0x3d04…6d13 crypto 409 markets active 2h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+1%) realized +$81 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%404W / 1L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$10
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 74 +0.9% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 186 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 405 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 1% -8.9%
10% -17.5% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.5% 0% -25.6%
20% -32.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$35 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses404 / 1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)405 / 409
History coverage202d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 405 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? No 99¢ 98¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 21 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 19? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 18? Jun 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? Jun 15 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 11? Jun 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 9? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 5? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 08 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 08 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 4? Jun 04 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 04 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 3? Jun 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 03 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 2? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on June 1? Jun 01 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 01 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $35 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $35 3d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $40 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $40 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $35 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $43 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $35 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $35 10d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $41 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $35 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $40 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 10? BUY No 97¢ $35 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $35 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.87 · official $150.87 (match) · 974 history records