Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d06…111d world 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$32 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$3
other 34% −$7
sports 15% +$10
crypto 3% −$27
finance 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.9% -18.5% 42% 8% -10.1%
≤30d 12 -9.9% -18.5% 42% 8% -10.1%
≤90d 15 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 13% -15.0%
all 15 -20.4% -28.0% 40% 13% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 13% -15.0%
10% -34.9% 7% -23.1%
15% -41.2% 0% -30.5%
20% -46.9% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage105d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $35 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 95¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 81¢ 79¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $103 +$5 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $32 −$6 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$8 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $120 +$11 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -20%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$14 +27%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $53 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 81¢ $28 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $24 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $27 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $36 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $22 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $41 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $48 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $49 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $29 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $16 18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $37 19h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 70¢ $64 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $21 20h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $20 21h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $50 34h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 49¢ $46 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.76 · official $144.76 (match) · 72 history records