Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d0d…bda5 weather 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate92%109W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$12
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 31 -3.1% -12.3% 97% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 100 +1.7% -8.0% 96% 4% -9.4%
all 119 -1.1% -10.6% 92% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 6% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses109 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage104d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 7? Jun 08 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 4? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 2? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 30? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $48 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 28? May 29 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 27? May 28 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on May 25? May 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 24? May 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 23? May 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 23 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on May 22? May 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or higher on May 20? May 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on May 17? May 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on May 16? May 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 15? May 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on May 14? May 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 13? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 13? May 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 11? May 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on May 10? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on May 10? May 11 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 9? May 10 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on May 8? May 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C or below on May 7? May 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on May 6? May 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on May 5? May 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on May 4? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 4? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 3? May 04 $59 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $61 24h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $61 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $60 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $60 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $60 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 12 BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $60 9d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $60 10d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $60 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $60 12d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $60 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $60 16d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $60 17d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $60 18d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $60 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $60 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $48 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $52 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $59 23d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $59 24d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C or higher on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $59 25d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $59 26d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $59 27d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 28d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $59 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.91 · official $60.91 (match) · 240 history records