Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3D 0x3d0f…70bd crypto 127 markets active 11d ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8,399 (-83%) realized −$8,399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate83%98W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$24
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$8,336
culture 6% $0
world 5% −$59
other 1% −$4
politics 1% −$1
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 -2.7% -12.0% 89% 5% -4.4%
≤90d 49 -2.2% -11.5% 92% 4% -6.3%
all 118 -7.7% -16.5% 83% 8% -84.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 8% -84.6%
10% -24.4% 2% -86.1%
15% -31.7% 0% -87.4%
20% -38.4% 0% -88.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$468 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$8,399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses98 / 20
Open positions9
Markets (closed)118 / 127
History coverage189d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $69 +$21 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $166 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in June? Jun 02 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2AM ET Jun 01 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 29 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11PM ET May 28 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 28 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 28 $35 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 19 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 19 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11PM ET May 12 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 12 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 08 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11PM ET May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" at the NRCC Dinner on Marc May 08 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12AM ET May 08 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 08 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7PM ET May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11PM ET May 08 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 08 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 08 $58 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 28 $2 $0 +4%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Mar 25 $2 $0 +8%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026? Mar 25 $10 $0 +0%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Mar 25 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 25 $2 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 06 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $5 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? SELL No 99¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? SELL No 99¢ $0 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 3? SELL No 99¢ $2 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.29 · official $19.74 (match) · 834 history records