Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:51:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3D 0x3d0f…0c28 world 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$402per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 44% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
all 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage14d
Avg bet$402
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $464 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? Jun 25 $462 $0 +0%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $434 +$5 +1%
Russia coup attempt in 2026? Jun 18 $432 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $305 +$12 +4%
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 11 $317 −$12 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? SELL No 95¢ $464 3m
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? BUY No 95¢ $464 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $463 1h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $462 3h
Modi out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $439 7d
Modi out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $434 7d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $423 7d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 7d
Russia coup attempt in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $432 7d
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY No 96¢ $305 14d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $305 14d
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $317 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records