Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3D
0x3d12…4b82
sports · 216 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$56 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$87 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$307
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses66 / 138
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions12
Markets (closed)204 / 216
History coverage30d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day53.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 12 History 204 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$80
14 days−$48
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$5 +76%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$2 -25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$5 -20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$14 -92%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$4 +34%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +61%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $184 +$26 +14%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $110 −$55 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$5 +62%
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -22%
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -11%
Will Canada be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -23%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group S Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +153%
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.7B? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Will Kendrick Lamar release an album in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -37%
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 $0 -26%
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.125 Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Reya FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -10%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 -31%
Will Casemiro score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -12%
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will USA be the worst-placed host nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -38%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 -24%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
3Jane FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 12 $1 $0 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$39
politics 9% −$9
other 9% −$14
world 8% −$33
tech 2% −$5
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 94¢ $2 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 93¢ $1 26m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 30¢ $6 28m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 28¢ $0 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 29¢ $0 29m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $1 31m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 28¢ $3 31m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 23¢ $3 31m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 45¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 47¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 75¢ $15 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 57¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 10¢ $1 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 75¢ $6 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $43 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 5h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 5h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $15 5h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $11 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $3 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $1 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $1 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $1 11h
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -15.3% -23.3% 19% 10% -16.9%
≤30d 204 -13.9% -22.1% 32% 15% -11.4%
≤90d 204 -13.9% -22.1% 32% 15% -11.4%
all 204 -13.9% -22.1% 32% 15% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover53.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.1% 15% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 10% -19.9%
15% -36.4% 7% -27.6%
20% -42.6% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $307.44 · official $307.47 (match) · 1693 history records