Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3D 0x3d14…ee01 world 493 markets active 0h ago coverage 73d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,539 (-1%) realized −$3,727 · open −$2,812
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate58%271W / 198L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,914per market
Trades / day42.4pace
Fees−$1,836est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$15,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 73d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1,367
sports 39% −$20,215
politics 8% +$852
other 8% −$5,025
crypto 1% −$1,224
tech 1% +$791
weather 0% −$327
finance 0% −$335
economics 0% −$10
culture 0% −$197
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -8.0% -16.7% 59% 7% -8.8%
≤30d 102 +34.6% +21.7% 55% 13% -9.5%
≤90d 469 -1.6% -10.9% 58% 16% -11.3%
all 469 -1.6% -10.9% 58% 16% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 16% -11.3%
10% -19.5% 11% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -27.2% 7% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$280 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$15,224
Realized−$3,727
Unrealized−$2,812
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses271 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,836
Open positions25
Markets (closed)469 / 493
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$1,914
Trades / day42.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 469 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 77¢ 81¢ $3,548 $3,755 +$207 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 77¢ 93¢ $2,395 $2,914 +$519 (+22%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $3,760 $2,731 −$1,029 (-27%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 75¢ 88¢ $1,394 $1,636 +$242 (+17%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $1,277 $1,342 +$64 (+5%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 88¢ $885 $875 −$10 (-1%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 95¢ 92¢ $482 $469 −$13 (-3%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ $64 $271 +$207 (+323%)
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 70¢ 48¢ $360 $243 −$117 (-33%)
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Yes 40¢ $1,735 $242 −$1,493 (-86%)
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026? Yes 80¢ 58¢ $197 $145 −$52 (-27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 49¢ 18¢ $284 $106 −$178 (-63%)
Stripe IPO before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-3%)
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 16¢ $107 $50 −$57 (-54%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $134 $48 −$86 (-64%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $58 $47 −$11 (-19%)
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 80¢ 34¢ $80 $34 −$46 (-58%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $37 $33 −$4 (-11%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $52 $22 −$30 (-57%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $214 $20 −$194 (-91%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 11¢ $647 $20 −$627 (-97%)
Printr FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 95¢ 13¢ $104 $15 −$90 (-86%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be less than 1.25T? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $1,022 +$228 +22%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,240 −$82 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $39,355 +$836 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $288 −$232 -80%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $406 −$170 -42%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $291 −$129 -44%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $884 +$16 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $7,087 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $10,002 +$137 +1%
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Jun 14 $99 $0 -0%
New pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $134 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $167 −$4 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $268 +$12 +5%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 14 $1,767 +$21 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,705 +$1 +0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $390 −$9 -2%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2,239 +$44 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,108 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $291 +$9 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $845 +$51 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $124 +$20 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3,450 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,600 −$69 -2%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 10 $308 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 10 $265 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $263 +$7 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 08 $299 −$135 -45%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 08 $187 +$2 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 08 $228 +$4 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 08 $445 +$2 +0%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 08 $456 +$11 +2%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 08 $868 +$2 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 08 $938 +$47 +5%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 07 $312 +$34 +11%
Printr FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jun 03 $385 −$8 -2%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 03 $33 −$30 -91%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 03 $142 +$15 +11%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 03 $716 +$92 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $296 +$4 +2%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 01 $462 +$541 +117%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12,892 −$1,282 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $3,002 +$211 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 01 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $606 −$27 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $325 +$16 +5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $11,645 −$274 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 31 $2,527 −$14 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $74 6m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $960 12m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $119 6h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $159 7h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $167 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $166 12h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $331 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $454 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $226 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,681 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $754 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $294 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $3 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $0 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $0 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $0 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $0 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $0 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $0 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $85 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $294 24h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $82 24h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 69¢ $963 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $7 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $273 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $29 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $42 24h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $56 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,224.24 · official $15,224.24 (match) · 3500 history records