Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3D 0x3d17…8fe8 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$138 (+4%) realized +$70 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate83%34W / 7L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$938now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$264
14 days+$264
30 days+$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$186
world 35% +$82
politics 7% +$70
tech 5% +$21
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +40.0% +26.7% 100% 92% +25.8%
≤30d 26 +40.0% +26.7% 100% 92% +25.8%
≤90d 26 +40.0% +26.7% 100% 92% +25.8%
all 41 +12.2% +1.5% 83% 71% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 71% +3.0%
10% -8.2% 51% -6.8%
15% -17.1% 37% -15.8%
20% -25.2% 27% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +42% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$938
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses34 / 7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)41 / 50
History coverage612d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $500 $543 +$43 (+9%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $300 $323 +$23 (+8%)
Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $30 $33 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $32 +$29 +92%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$14 +45%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $30 +$16 +55%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? A Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 Jun 27 $30 +$21 +69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? AND W Jun 27 $31 +$19 +61%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? AND Wi Jun 25 $35 +$21 +59%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +52%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$3 +38%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $36 +$5 +13%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN Jun 24 $24 +$10 +42%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 +$7 +25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 +$2 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $37 +$6 +16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 21 $50 +$18 +36%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 08 $423 +$55 +13%
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year? Dec 08 $9 $0 +5%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 08 $57 −$47 -83%
Will Donald Trump give Elon Musk a nickname before July? Jul 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit Los Angeles by Friday? Jul 03 $10 +$1 +11%
DeepSeek R2 released before July? Jul 03 $10 +$2 +16%
China x India military clash by June 30? Jul 03 $567 +$17 +3%
Israel military action against Iran before 2026? Jun 30 $11 −$11 -100%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China before September? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? Jun 10 $100 +$23 +23%
Alibaba AI model better than DeepSeek before March? Mar 06 $58 +$2 +4%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Feb 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Feb 07 $100 +$67 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 55¢ $20 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 64¢ $30 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 51¢ $32 14h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY 68¢ $30 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26 BUY 59¢ $30 43h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? AND W BUY 62¢ $31 43h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? A BUY 58¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 51¢ $33 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-2 BUY 69¢ $20 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $31 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? AND Wi BUY 62¢ $15 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 46¢ $15 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY 70¢ $22 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? AND Wi BUY 62¢ $20 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 76¢ $20 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $20 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 63¢ $30 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 72¢ $7 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $18 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $18 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $18 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY 80¢ $26 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 76¢ $23 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 70¢ $24 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 81¢ $10 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 86¢ $37 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY 78¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $938.03 · official $938.04 (match) · 306 history records